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Summary of March 2026

It’s been three months of relentless decline of software stocks due to the ‘AI kills software’ narrative, and of course, recently, the Iran war.

The impact of wars is broad and deep when they're prolonged and out of our control; however, AI-fear narratives are defensible, particularly for businesses with high switching costs and are hard to operate, even if AI could replicate the software. In February, our detailed AI risk assessment found that 10 out of 12 holding businesses are AI-immune.

As a result, in March, I cut the most vulnerable - SPS Commerce and used the proceeds to add to the three most immune. I am planning to add to my latest pick, Intuitive Surgical #23, and my new pick #24, which I will have the write-up for in a week's time.

The challenge, of course, is that I will continue to look wrong. The market can remain irrational longer than my patience. The last time software companies had a prolonged decline was the Ukraine war, which coincided with the post-COVID SaaS business hangover. It lasted a year and a half for some of our business. But then they rebounded spectacularly between mid 2023 and mid 2025.

Today, the valuation of all these businesses is also at its lowest since their IPOs. They could still fall further; however, looking beyond 5-10 years, I believe they will benefit from AI, and I will be more prepared to capture the gains once it rebounds again.

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Busy March, bought more AI-immune businesses

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Summary of Feb 2026

In January, I defended SaaS from AI risks for its incredible high switching costs and then further explained in the Best Buy series why they were also hard to operate even if AI can replicate the software part.

In Febuary, software continued to decline in Febuary. I have conducted a detailed AI risk assessment for all holdings. The finding showed AI is largely immaterial to 10 out of 12 businesses. However, I need to cut one holding - SPS Commerce (this week) and monitor one closely. I’ll also add more to two (patiently).

I could be wrong, of course! Valuation is at its lowest since IPO, and this particular business has also implemented its own AI capabilities.

However,

Its data structure is the problem! Deterministic, rule-based, and repetitive. SaaS with the same data structure, and with limited switching costs and network effects advantages, is likely to suffer the same fate.

Let’s look at the details of why I am trimming before we report the portfolio performance.

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Cutting SPS Commerce (SPSC)

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Summary of Jan 2026

January continued the decline from the end of 2025. Software continued to be sold off amid rising concerns about AI’s disruption. Constellation Software (CSU.TO), the poster child for high-quality software names, fell 52% since June 2025.

Sleep Well Portfolio owns 13 names, of which 2 have suffered a similar 50% decline from peak last year, like CSU. But I argue the share price decline is an opportunity for long-term owners. I’ll explain.

The lens I am viewing through is, first and foremost, fundamental. Then I give the time that the business needs to prove itself. Even when dissecting the steepest-declining stocks in the portfolio (Wisetech or Cellebrite), I get more excited than worried. Why?

Both provide solutions with no comparable alternatives that require thousands of customer iterations to reach where they are today. Employees and stakeholders require extensive training and adjustments to company-wide workflows to adopt the solution. Add to that the customers are slow-moving governments/large entities; they will not be willing to spend years migrating away from what they have been using for years, if not decades. Their business trajectory is on track to compound at a 15-20% CAGR in free cash flow per share, while the stock price has declined by 50%.

No doubt, AI is a risk - an existential risk to simple, UI only, point-based software, but not to Wisetech / Cellebrite / Veeva; they own the data, the workflow, the platform. Hence, during January, I have added to Cellebrite (and Wisetech in November) and have published my intention to buy the 23rd Sleep Well Pick - Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), the least likely software/hardware business to be replaced by AI.

The next few sleep well picks will be of a similar quality to ISRG, and 2026 may prove to be the best year to accumulate more shares of the best businesses. Performance may not turn right away, but I am excited for 2037.

Now, let’s skim through the January 2026 performance.

• Return from inception was 17% vs. S&P500 58%: ~40% underperformance. Sharp decline from September 2025, when SWI was >60%, due to the high concentration in SE/WTC.

• Picks’ annualized return is now 9% compared to 16% in December 2025, 21% in November, 27% in October, 47% in Sep, 50% in Aug, 46% in July, 61% in June, 64% in May, 51% in April, and 38% in March.

• 4 losers, 9/13 making money, and 21/36 transactions were correct decisions.

• Monthly Best Buys and research list - will be posted separately. The latest edition is here.

  

• If you are new to SWI, check out our FAQ and Owner Manual.

If you are already an annual member, you can access the Sleep Well Portfolio and Thesis Tracker via the link below.

Take me to the Sleep Well Portfolio

What’s in store for 2026?

We will continue to own leaders in niches and allocate capital concentrated on a few names. SE, MELI, GRAB, WTC, FTNT, and VEEV are over 70% of the portfolio. When they rebound, it will be spectacular, but in the interim, I will have to stomach the large swings and focus on the fundamentals.

In 2026, you can expect more deep dives like Intuitive Surgical and shorter profiles of watchlist companies in my Best Buys series.

SWI Performance since inception 17% vs S&P500 58% - Interactive Brokers:

Current portfolio - 4 losers

Previously - December 2025

Previously - November 2025

Previously - October 2025

Previously, Sep 2025 - 2 losers

Previously, Aug 2025 - 1 loser

Previously, July 2025 - 2 losers

Previously, June 2025

Previously, May 2025

Previously, April 2025

Previously, Mar 2025

Transactions with notes below:

Expanding investment universe

You will only see me buying businesses that I thoroughly understand (see the deep dives below). I’ll expand the list when I find ones that pass the Sleep Well Investments checklist.

Sleep Well Portfolio reviews

How can Sleep Well Investments help you?

1. High success rate stock picks—9% annualized time-weighted.

2. High-quality research and detailed follow-up. Buy and verify.

3. Free samples of deep dives, tracking updates, and buy alerts.

4. Free knowledge of the investment framework to help find quality companies, and the lessons I have learnt.

5. Free book reviews on Pulak Prasad’s, Terry Smith's (15% CAGR), Scott Fraser's (19% CAGR), Ralph Wanger's (16% CAGR), and Peter Lynch's (29% CAGR) teaching.

Disclaimer:

As a reader of Sleep Well Investments, you agree to our disclaimer. You can read it in full here.

I am honored to be building a Sleep Well Portfolio with all of you. Sharing every ownership decision, along with my thoughts and the lessons behind them, has been very humbling. 2023 and 2024 were near-perfect, and in 2025, we hit a minor roadblock, but I am certain we are on the right path - owning irreplaceable monopolies and focusing on the right aspects - enduring growth.

2025 was not perfect, with a 70% win rate, after 92% in 2024 and 100% in 2023.

• 🕵️ 22 sleep-well picks yielded 14% return on average.

• ☑ 37 thesis tracking reports that deepen knowledge of our 22 picks.

• 🎯 37% vs. 60% of the S&P500 since inception, underperformance from Sep 2025.

• 📚 learned from Pulak Prasad, Mistake in Intellego, Navigating Tarriff Headlines.

A striking and recurring theme I experienced this year was that investors tend to overreact to short-term stock movements and underestimate the long-term drivers of the underlying businesses. Simply put, an investor’s average holding period is 6 months (and shortens each year), while mine is at least until 2037, when my daughters will take control of this portfolio. I am not under stress about this year’s underperformance. My patience and my focus on the long-term drivers of value are my edge and the reason why I sleep well. Any mistakes I make this year or next will be crucial to the performance of the next 10-20 years.

An example I want to key in is my ~20% position in Sea Limited (55% in my PA). Its share price dropped ~40% from its peak at $200/share over just two months, starting in September, as margins in its core ecommerce business division - Shopee, contracted.

Yes, that alone displaced the portfolio from outperformance over the past few years to underperformance (more on that later).

However, every day, I wear the business owner’s hat. I focus on the product, the supplier, the competitor, and what investment the business makes to create value. Vastly different from someone with a 6-month view.

Therefore, I am not concerned about Sea’s stock decline.

The following chart means little.

I dived deep into why margin dropped from 5% in Q1 to 2.6% in Q3 here, among competitive dynamics, if you are interested, and the rest are [deep dive, 4th buy, 3rd buy, 2nd buy, 1st buy, tariff review, sum-of-parts, Q3’25, Q2’25, Q1’25, Q4’24, Q3’24, Q2’24 update]

As a business owner, I examined and understood why the margin dropped.

Sea Limited’s mission is to create greater value for customers, a prerequisite to being in a position to capture that value over the next 10-20 years.

That requires building the best experience at the lowest cost for merchants and customers to exchange goods and payments, and then positioning it to capture most of the value created:

1. create value to the ecosystem (better than competition) —>

2. capture value / cash flow

3. reinvest to create and capture more value

= longevity.

The ending is still unfolding for Sea Limited, as the market's competitiveness has yet to reach equilibrium. Therefore, it’s essential to step back, look beyond immediate news flows, and consider how industry/customer trends affect the business over the long term, as well as the rationale for the company's and competitors’ actions.

Sea Limited is creating real customer value, beginning to extract value from customers, and appears to defend well against competitive market conditions. I say ‘appears’ because at 50%+ market share, you need to start overstating the competitiveness to avoid anti-monopolistic regulations. The reality is that when the whole industry is raising the take rate, that means excess value is being created and extracted.

So, when Sea’s value should drop by 40% because its margin drops by a few basis points, I examine why and zoom out.

Case in point: Amazon and Mercado Libre, the first and second proven iterations of e-commerce, one created in 1994 and the other in 1999, have shown time and time again that their path to market leadership was broad SKU at low prices. Meli’s road is the most similar to Sea’s, and Amazon’s path is the most different. But their journeys all required consistent and substantial investment in infrastructure. Amazon still spent nearly ~$100B in logistics last year, 30 years later, and plans to invest $40B in the UK alone in the coming years. Meli also spent ~$13B last year, the workforce increased by 30% in 2025, and it plans to continue investing in rural regions and markets outside Brazil.

So for Sea, it’s still early days. To capture and retain more customers, Sea will not stop at investing in logistics. It must continue to hyper-localise its services and increase customer touchpoints to differentiate itself. Every move reduces the investment risk. Hence, I am happy with temporary margin compression due to higher expenses and investments in VIP programs, Shopee Live, and credit/loans to customers through its fintech services (Monee). In a region where e-commerce and digital banking are still left to be desired, I see these continued investments as future value creation, and the recent drop in the stock price is highly welcome for cheaper buybacks ($1B program authorized) and for my further buys.

Finally, at ~$120/share and under 20x free cash flow, my estimates indicate the market expects only 7% free cash flow per-share growth through 2037. The market is underestimating Sea's ability to evolve and create value for the increasingly demanding 700M population in Southeast Asia, of which 300M (mostly in SEA) are active Shopee buyers, 45M are already active Fintech users, and 66M are paying gamers.

The above sums up my view as a part-owner of the businesses. A 40% price dip does not reflect the value Sea can capture and extract in the future; hence, my additions in November and December at $122 and $136/share.

Key lessons and improvements in 2025.

With a focus on deep fundamental research and long-term ownership, I am reasonably comfortable with the advice: ‘bet big when the odds are in your favour’. However, selling and cutting winners remains my weakness.

Last year, I learned that when selling, I should ‘sell my least loved business’. This year, I realized that no matter how good the business is, I need to be more ‘critical of my most loved stocks’, dissect them, and be ready to part ways (not clinging to stocks that I have spent considerable time on) for better opportunities. It’s a balancing act, given I don’t want to mistakenly ‘cut my flowers’.

During the year, I started the Best Buys series to force me to consider every position in the portfolio as if I were starting from scratch each month. As a result, I was able to trim CrowdStrike by half, a position I have held for over 5 years, from <$90/share (vs $525/share - sell alert).

So, no stock is ‘not for sale!’.

Together with CrowdStrike, Sea Limited, Mercado Libre, and Veeva were held for over 5 years. All have suffered 30% drops multiple times, 50% once, and 80%+ once (Sea).

I am glad I didn’t sell then, but this year CrowdStrike’s stock has ventured into unimaginable valuations. The sale also pushed me into uncharted territory and set a precedent for all my future sales decisions.

From now on, all stocks are candidates for trimming; to capture better opportunities or for cash until valuations come down to warrant further additions. Even Warren Buffett is sitting on nearly $360B cash (36% of the $1T market cap).

During the year, Wisetech also traded at close to 100x FCF (Q1 2025). CrowdStrike traded at 120x recently. In hindsight, Sea Limited trading over 30x FCF would have warranted a slight trim or a discussion of selling, given the 20% holding.

Avoid highly debated stocks - Intellego.

My next lesson is about my mistakes with Intellego. I have already written multiple articles on this (mistake; cautioned others about the risk), but I add here that greater attention should be paid to working capital management. Quality of the revenue isn’t just about recurring revenue (89% of sales are from existing customers for Intellego), but I should also demand stable inventory days and receivable days. In other words, I demand that my business has inventory that sells and customers that pay. I relaxed these parameters for Intellego, given its early stage in the business/technology, where it needed to offer incentives (extended payment terms) to attract early, large international customers. Additionally, investing in smaller-cap companies will require more stringent parameters, as outlined in this article.

Now, my Intellego’s shares are treated as if I own a private unlisted business. Regardless of whether it is relisted on the Nordic Nasdaq, I hope that only a few actors are bad apples and that the company can continue to serve real hospitals and save lives. Even if all else fails, Intellego’s 10.5% ownership stake in one of its partners, HAI Solutions, may be worth something. HAI Solutions has the first and only FDA-approved UVC Technology for Microbial Reduction on Needleless IV Connectors, a $1.5B global market, and has the exclusive right to distribute the product in China and to receive royalties on global sales. This thriller continues….but will be the last I watch before bed.

Even better businesses and engagement.

In the past, I have shared my sleep well picks only after conducting research and writing up everything. But with the lessons above, I have started sharing research in the Best Buys series to get early feedback from you, many of whom are experienced fund managers. This will help us avoid more pitfalls like Intellego. So far, we talked about Rubrik, Fila, and ReposiTrak, and crossed out Airbnb, Evolution AB, Teqnion, and LVMH, all of which have yet to prove to be high-quality businesses (yet).

In 2026, I’ll continue to profile my early research monthly.

Next are three incredible businesses that I intend to dig deeper into and buy when their valuations take a break (every stock dips at some point). You will see that they will significantly improve the quality of the Sleep Well Portfolio companies.

Company A:

• Oligopoly with ~35% market share, over a century of history of operation, a company with the longest revenue visibility I have come across, which is up to 25 years, and 70% of it is recurring. Demand has never been an issue, and growth is well supported by high barriers to entry, driven by the business's near-natural moat (regulations) and high switching costs. Management is incentivised based on their performance in ROIC (return on invested capital) and growth in free cash flow. They want what investors want. The business has simplified significantly in recent years, and opportunities to acquire shares at a lower valuation could be on the horizon.

Company B:

• A monopoly of general surgery with a 90% high-margin recurring revenue. The company aims to increase the installed base by 5x by 2035, with no competition and a strong contender to counter AI risks. High regulatory hurdles, a long sales cycle, and high switching costs protect the company’s market share. The company is highly resilient to health crises, has a substantial cash buffer, and is AI-embedded.

Company C:

• A leader in 2D, 3D, and 4D medical imaging. An aging population, ongoing cloud adoption, and a massive skill shortage are driving extremely long-term growth. Additionally, most of the US market still relies on legacy systems, and other geographies remain largely untapped. High-margin revenue is extremely defensible, as customers are guaranteed contracted revenue for five to eight years.

FY2025 Performance 😴

Caveat emptor: Our finish line is in 2037, not 2025. Judge my performance in a few years, not today. That said, let’s celebrate crossing our third year together!

Since the inception of Sleep Well Portfolio (October 2023), my self-reported result is 16% money-weighted per pick (32% in 2024).

For more details and all transactions since inception, please refer to the Sleep Well Portfolio spreadsheet (available only for the annual subscription). One of the sheets you can see is the thesis tracker below, which includes links to all write-ups, sorted by quarter and name.

As per Interactive Broker’s automated report, the Sleep Well Portfolio (blue) returned 37% since inception, compared to ~60% for the S&P 500 (Sep 2023 - 24 December 2025). You can see the underperformance began after the September decline, which coincided with the declines in Sea Limited and Intellego. As per the commentary on both businesses above, I am optimistic Sea will come back and drive positive contribution to the portfolio in 2026, and Intellego might come out less than the current 70% loss as a private company.

Year to date, SWI returned 5% vs. SP500 at 16%.

Meanwhile, my Personal Portfolio (PA) returned 0% this year, compared to 16% for the S&P500 (01 January 2025 - 24 December 2025).

My PA’s underperformance is attributable to holding much larger positions in Sea Limited, Mercado Libre, and Grab, all of which I have held for over five years and underperformed this year.

But 2025 has already passed. What is most important is the health of the portfolios beyond 2026. I am very excited to learn from the mistakes of 2025 and share our success as the year progresses!

Don’t hesitate to comment, help me improve, and contact me through trung.nguyen@sleepwellinvestments.com, LinkedIn, or twitter/X@SleepWellTrung

Happy holidays with your loved ones!

Trung 🙏

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Summary of November 2025 - 2nd tough month

• The Intellego MISTAKE lingers on for the second month. The founder and CEO has now been detained and is likely to be charged with gross fraud. The business is real, but management is rotten. Deloitte, the Swedish Credit Agency (EKN), Nordea Bank, and investors have all been misled. The stock will likely be delisted, and I won’t know the ending for many years. The SWI portfolio for October and November was impacted significantly. My PA saw a near 7-figure loss, too.

• I stuck my neck out and stepped out of my comfort zone with Intellego and got my head chopped. The situation was also compounded by the historic flooding of my new home in Hoi An and the failure of my extended family’s business, which I stepped in to help. Investment decisions during September and October were made under intense pressure. But I am not one to shy away from mistakes; they need to be minced, experienced, and learned.

• Onwards, I am excited to grow a new head and turn the portfolio around. The fundamentals of the rest of the portfolio are strong; it requires patience.

• Declines in core positions SE (20%), WTC (9%), MELI (15%), and KSNL (5%) dragged the portfolio down from overperformance to underperformance for the second month. These are temporary.

  

• I expect a rebound. SE and MELI are trading at ~20x FCF for mid-term 20%+ growth and a very low chance of being disrupted from their 50%+ and 30% leadership position. Monetization is just starting from years of building moats around the ‘castle’. I believe those two alone will turn my current underperformance around. A detailed study of SE’s valuation was conducted here on 17th November. Next, I also have strong reasons to think WTC will do well in 2026, but the transition for the new CEO and commercial revenue model will take time. Hence,

• The two additions in the month (no sales) were WTC at AUD 66/share and SE at $136/share. Sentiments are low for these two quality businesses and I believe, its’s a good time to add more of its stock.

• Return from inception was 2% vs. S&P500 32%: ~30% underperformance.

• 2025 Year-to-date return was -9% vs. S&P500 16%: ~25% underperformance.

• Picks’ annualized return is now 21% compared to 27% in October, 47% in Sep, 50% in Aug, 46% in July, 61% in June, 64% in May, 51% in April, and 38% in March.

• 3 losers, 10/13 making money, and 23/33 transactions were correct decisions.

• Best buys and research list - will be posted separately. The latest edition is here.

  

• If you are new to SWI, check out our FAQ and Owner Manual.

If you are already an annual member, you can access the Sleep Well Portfolio and Thesis Tracker via the link below.

Take me to the Sleep Well Portfolio

Safety first, returns later.

We saw that avoiding losers is crucial to overperformance. Avoiding future Intellego will help the portfolio perform again.

Next, bet big when the odds of being right are high. We have a high concentration on SE, MELI, GRAB, WTC, VEEV, and CRWD; the success of these four will determine the end of SWI in 10 years.

The downside is that there will be large swings, particularly when you run a concentrated portfolio [current portfolio in the next section].

For now, one WTC is one of the three losers (Intellego, Wisetech, and SPS Commerce). This is the second month we have had three.

As the situation at Wisetech has been self-inflicted [unforced errors] and improved, but the price has remained 50% off peak, I added shares.

I am eying an addition to Cellebrite and SPS Commerce, as both haven’t done much wrong to warrant an 8% and 24% decline in the month.

On SPS Commerce, shares declined by 20% post Q3’25 earnings due to Q4 softness. For me, it’s more about the management’s inability to set a medium-term growth target. While I believe it can continue at ~15% growth, including acquisition, management leaned towards 7-8% organic growth and leaving the inorganic growth for the market’s imagination. The 20% drop is a significant overreaction. I put the business on the last Best Buy list and may add shares down the line. You can follow the thread here.

Since we launched the Sleep Well Portfolio in 2023, we have had:

• two losers over 5 months, and

• three over 2 months.

• one or no losers over 17 months.

With more time to monitor the businesses, we can be more comfortable with betting big on our winners and avoid future Intellego.

Sea Limited and CrowdStrike are examples. Our returns on Sea Limited and CrowdStrike have increased by 100% and 150%, respectively. We added to Sea 5 times in the 17 months, and it now accounts for 21% of our portfolio. Wisetech will do very well, and I am optimistic about closing the gap with the S&P500 by adding more to Wisetech over time. Next, headwinds at Cellebrite and SPSC will be tailwinds in the coming quarters. Time is on my side; my horizon is at least a decade. The course will correct.

To close the commentary section, I am leaving Intellego’s loss on the portfolio as a good reminder, while eyeing additions to my future winners - WTC, CLBT, and SPS Commerce.

SWI Performance since inception 2% vs S&P500 32% - Interactive Brokers:

Current portfolio - 3 losers

Previously - October 2025

Previously, Sep 2025 - 2 losers

Previously, Aug 2025 - 1 loser

Previously, July 2025 - 2 losers

Previously, June 2025

Previously, May 2025

Previously, April 2025

Previously, Mar 2025

Transactions with notes below:

Expanding investment universe

You will only see me buying businesses that I thoroughly understand (see the deep dives below). I’ll expand the list when I find ones that pass the Sleep Well Investments checklist.

Sleep Well Portfolio reviews

How can Sleep Well Investments help you?

1. High success rate stock picks—27% annualized time-weighted.

2. High-quality research and detailed follow-up. Buy and verify.

3. Free samples of deep dives, tracking updates, and buy alerts.

4. Free knowledge of the investment framework to help find quality companies, and the lessons I have learnt.

5. Free book reviews on Pulak Prasad’s, Terry Smith's (15% CAGR), Scott Fraser's (19% CAGR), Ralph Wanger's (16% CAGR), and Peter Lynch's (29% CAGR) teaching.

Disclaimer:

As a reader of Sleep Well Investments, you agree to our disclaimer. You can read it in full here.

Build your Sleep Well Portfolio today

Good morning, sleep-well owners,

Summary of October 2025 - Tough Month

• We made a MISTAKE in naming Intellego as our 22nd sleep well pick. [deep dive, 1st buy, 2nd buy, 3rd buy, risk management, 1st live event, mispriced, mistake].

• Moderate declines in big positions SE, WTC, KNSL, and huge drop in smaller positions SPSC and INT dragged the portfolio down from overperformance to underperformance.

• Return from inception was 20% vs. S&P500 32%: ~12% underperformance.

• 2025 Year-to-date return was 3.6% vs. S&P500 16%: ~12% underperformance.

• Picks’ annualized return is now 27%, compared to 47% in Sep, 50% in Aug, 46% in July, 61% in June, 64% in May, 51% in April, and 38% in March.

• 3 losers, 10/13 making money, and 22/31 transactions were correct decisions.

• Best buys and research list - will be posted separately. The first edition is here.

  

• If you are new to SWI, check out our FAQ and Owner Manual.

• Bitesize learning topic of October: Learning from mistakes. I have introduced thresholds for market cap, corporate governance standards, years of existence, and time on the public market to ensure I don’t select another Intellego again. I will also be more strict on my additions, waiting at least a quarter or two to let the initial buy play out first.

If you are already an annual member, you can access the Sleep Well Portfolio and Thesis Tracker via the link below.

Take me to the Sleep Well Portfolio

Safety first, returns later.

Our future performance will come from avoiding losers and betting big when the odds of being right are high.

We only want to own high-quality companies that can overcome challenging periods. Currently, we have three losers: Intellego, Wisetech, and SPS Commerce. This is the first month we have three.

An interesting stat, all of our losers turned green after a year of ownership. Even after making a mistake in Intellego, I still believe it can come back (more on this later), while a drop in Wisetech and SPS Commerce are both candidates for me to add soon. I would also add Sea Limited, but my broker no longer allows ADRs in non-taxable accounts.

Since we launched the Sleep Well Portfolio in 2023, we have had only

• two losers over 5 months, and

• three over 1 month.

• one or no losers over 17 months.

With limited losers and enough time for observations, we can be more comfortable with betting big on our winners (much like watering flowers and cutting the weeds, as they say). Sea Limited and CrowdStrike are examples. Our returns on Sea Limited and CrowdStrike have increased by 115% and 165%, respectively. We added to Sea 4 times in the 16 months, and it now accounts for 23% of our portfolio.

We believe we have found a sustainable formula, but we will hit bumps on the road from time to time. October saw a large pothole on the road. It marks the first month of underperformance after over a year. AI taking over the S&P500 makes things even harder. However, I believe the dip in Sea Limited, WiseTech, SPSC, and Intellego will turn into a tailwind in the coming months /quarters. Since our investment horizon is long, time is on our side. The course will correct.

Intellego was a mistake.

Intellego’s fundamentals are impressive on paper. Great IP, world-class customers for Intellego’s size (Henkel, IKEA, hospitals, etc), unbounded potential if expanded beyond healthcare disinfection markets (industrial curing and water disinfection). However, high accounting receivables and subsequent slow cash conversion brought in an army of shorts in September and October. The short ratio was nearly 10% at one point. There were as many as seven bearish articles. Three short reports were anonymous, with just one article on their Substack and zero followers, yet as soon as they were published, they were shared across Sweden. I won’t go into detail here, as I don’t want to make any allegations. It just seemed excessive that a company could be under so much attack.

The news flow was unfortunate, but not the frequency I would like to receive going forward. I also want companies with better CEOs or ones that can admit their weaknesses and be candid with investors. I will give Claes Lindahl Q3 (10th November) and Q4 as the last chance to prove worthy of staying in the portfolio.

I have documented it in depth here if you want to give me further feedback.

But, make no mistake, this is an exciting company.

• A ~$400M Swedish company selling UV validation technology, expanding beyond disinfection to industrial curing applications.

• Operating margin above 40%, patent-backed, and growing by more than 100%.

• The valuation was 5x EBIT for FY2025 figures, significantly lower than that of peers.

Wisetech and SPS Commerce are the two remaining losers.

I am much less worried about these two, I believe Wisetech's recent drop has been purely self-inflicted thanks to the scandalous CEO, who in the past 12 months has been exposed to be involved in sex scandals with an employee, got ‘kicked out’ of the company, and subsequently sold 1% of his 36.5% ownership in the black out period (as a sign of rebellion). Fundamentally, the business is sound, and I may add further to Wisetech. You can follow the chat thread about this here.

SPS Commerce, on the other hand, declined by 20% post Q3’25 earnings due to Q4 softness. For me, it’s more about the management's inability to set a medium-term growth target. While I believe it can continue at ~15% growth, including acquisition, management leaned towards 7-8% organic growth and leaving the inorganic growth for the market’s imagination. The 20% drop is a significant overreaction. I will likely put the business on my next Best Buy list. You can follow the thread here.

SWI since inception 20% vs S&P500 32% - Interactive Brokers:

The significant dip in our outperformance was attributed to a corresponding decline in larger positions, including Sea Limited (to $155 from $175), Wisetech (to $70 from $90), Kinsale ($400 from $460) and Intellego’s 60% drop since first bought. I still view this as a temporary drop, and I am open to adding more to these businesses (but I can’t add SE anymore due to Interactive Broker’s restrictions on ADRs shares). Meanwhile, the Mag7 and AI related companies did brilliantly during the past two months.

Current portfolio - 3 losers

To aim for a ‘no loser’ status, I am committed to ensuring I don’t own bad businesses in the long term. In the short term, I don’t know what will happen to the stock, nor the market’s perception of the stock; I am more interested in studying the business underneath - core business drivers and evolving threats - which are the main factors that influence my buy/sell decision.

These monthly updates are only snapshots of stocks’ performance. So, if you examine SWI’s performance history, you will see that all of our ‘losers’ are a result of temporary dips in stock price shortly after acquisition. All of our purchases have eventually turned green after one year. I believe there is good chances some of these will next year, SWI’s 11th pick (-22%), 20th pick (-31%), and SWI’s 22nd pick (-52%).

Previously, Sep 2025 - 2 losers

Previously, Aug 2025 - 1 loser

Previously, July 2025 - 2 losers

Previously, June 2025

Previously, May 2025

Previously, April 2025

Previously, Mar 2025

Transactions with notes below:

Expanding investment universe

You will only see me buying businesses that I thoroughly understand (see the deep dives below). I’ll expand the list when I find ones that pass the Sleep Well Investments checklist.

Sleep Well Portfolio reviews

How can Sleep Well Investments help you?

1. High success rate stock picks—27% annualized time-weighted.

2. High-quality research and detailed follow-up. Buy and verify.

3. Free samples of deep dives, tracking updates, and buy alerts.

4. Free knowledge of the investment framework to help find quality companies and execute with discipline.

5. Free book reviews on Pulak Prasad’s, Terry Smith's (15% CAGR), Scott Fraser's (19% CAGR), Ralph Wanger's (16% CAGR), and Peter Lynch's (29% CAGR) teaching.

Disclaimer:

As a reader of Sleep Well Investments, you agree to our disclaimer. You can read it in full here.

Build your Sleep Well Portfolio today

Good morning, sleep-well owners,

Summary of September

• We bought Intellego [deep dive, 1st buy, 2nd buy, risk management, 1st live event, mispriced].

• Return from inception was 35% vs. S&P500 29%: ~6% outperformance.

• 2025 Year-to-date return was 13% vs. S&P50013%: ~0% outperformance.

• Picks’ annualized return is now 47%, compared to 50% in Aug, 46% in July, 61% in June, 64% in May, 51% in April, and 38% in March.

• 2 losers, 11/13 making money, and 25/30 transactions were correct decisions.

• Best buys and research list - will be posted separately. Annual members can already see the reasons why FILA and Rubrik were added to the Research List (in the SWP spreadsheet), as well as companies worth adding at current prices (Monthly Update tab).

  

• If you are new to SWI, check out our FAQ and Owner Manual.

• Bitesize learning topic of September: Understanding Risk, an underappreciated topic when things are going well. Please check them out to learn more about how we build our Sleep Well Portfolio.

If you are already an annual member, you can access the Sleep Well Portfolio and Thesis Tracker via the link below.

Take me to the Sleep Well Portfolio

Safety first, returns later.

Our future performance will come from avoiding ‘losers’ and betting big when the odds of being right are high.

In other words, we only want to own high-quality companies that can overcome challenging periods. Currently, we have two losers. We expect to return to green as time goes by. An interesting stat, all of our losers turned green after a year of ownership. Since we launched the Sleep Well Portfolio in 2023, we have had only two losers for a total of 5 months. For the rest of the time, the portfolio has had either one or no losers.

With limited losers and enough time for observations, we can be more comfortable with betting big on our winners (much like watering flowers and cutting the weeds, as they say). Sea Limited is an example. Our return on Sea Limited has increased by 150%. We added it 4 times in the 16 months, and it now accounts for 24% of our portfolio.

We believe we have found a sustainable formula, and I am excited about the future. Since our investment horizon is long, time is on our side.

Quality > quantity.

Intellego in focus

In September, our attention was on Intellego, our 22nd sleep-well pick:

• A ~$500M Swedish company selling UV validation technology, expanding beyond disinfection to industrial curing applications.

• Operating margin above 40%, patent-backed, and growing by more than 100%.

• The valuation was 8x EBIT for FY2025 figures, significantly lower than that of peers.

The pick strikes a balance between innovation, market relevance, pricing power, and a reasonable valuation. While the stock is volatile, I believe that by holding the company for longer than an average investor, whose holding period is than 1 year (down from 30 months in the 1990s), we will have a higher chance of owning a much larger company (triple-digit revenue growth at 50%+ operating margin). We will also be able to capitalize on more volatility.

More information on the 22nd pick here: [deep dive, 1st buy, 2nd buy, risk management, 1st live event, mispriced]

**2nd October, I also bought Intellego for the third time. Article here.

SWI since inception 35% vs S&P500 29% - Interactive Brokers:

The slight dip in our outperformance was attributed to a corresponding decline in larger positions, including Sea Limited, Mercado Libre, Wisetech, and Intellego’s 28% drop in the first three weeks. I view this as a temporary drop, and I am open to adding more to these businesses. Meanwhile, the Mag7 did great with a resurgence of AI-related developments.

Current portfolio - 2 losers

To achieve a ‘no loser’ status, I am committed to ensuring I don’t own bad businesses in the long term. In the short term, I don’t know what will happen to the stock, nor the market’s perception of the stock; I am more interested in studying the business underneath - core business drivers and evolving threats - which are the main factors that influence my buy/sell decision.

Please keep in mind that these monthly updates are only snapshots of stocks’ performance. So, if you examine SWI’s performance history, you will see that all of our ‘losers’ are a result of temporary dips in stock price shortly after acquisition. All of our purchases have eventually turned green after one year. I believe that by next June, SWI's 20th pick (-13%) will turn green, and I certainly have high hopes for SWI’s 22nd pick (-22%) to do the same by then, if not earlier.

Previously, Aug 2025 - 1 loser

Previously, July 2025 - 2 losers

Previously, June 2025

Previously, May 2025

Previously, April 2025

Previously, Mar 2025

Transactions with notes below:

Expanding investment universe

You will only see me buying businesses that I thoroughly understand (see the deep dives below). I’ll expand the list when I find ones that pass the Sleep Well Investments checklist.

Sleep Well Portfolio reviews

How can Sleep Well Investments help you?

1. High success rate stock picks—47% annualized time-weighted.

2. High-quality research and detailed follow-up. Buy and verify.

3. Free samples of deep dives, tracking updates, and buy alerts.

4. Free knowledge of the investment framework to help find quality companies and execute with discipline.

5. Free book reviews on Pulak Prasad’s, Terry Smith's (15% CAGR), Scott Fraser's (19% CAGR), Ralph Wanger's (16% CAGR), and Peter Lynch's (29% CAGR) teaching.

Disclaimer:

As a reader of Sleep Well Investments, you agree to our disclaimer. You can read it in full here.

Build your Sleep Well Portfolio today

Good morning, sleep-well owners,

We are working on the 22nd sleep-well pick.

• <$1B market cap expanding outside of the medical devices sector,

• Operating margin above 35%, patent-backed, and growing by more than 100%,

• Valuation lower than peers

The pick strikes a balance between innovation, market relevance, pricing power, and a reasonable valuation. I hope to get the work out in a week.

Subscribe now

In August, we also focused on the 20th and 21st picks and successfully capitalized on the price falls following their Q2 Results.

Facts didn’t change, and we added more shares.

We also capitalized on the falling prices of our top position, Sea Limited, now sitting on a 150% gain. The company remains misunderstood and is still a candidate for further additions.

Our future performance will come from having a ‘no loser’ policy and also from betting big when the odds of being right are high. Sea Limited accounts for 24% of the portfolio and is the top performer (150% gain). We have performed well on the first (11 out of 12 holdings are green), and we strive to improve on the second.

We have likely found a good formula, and I am excited about the future. Time is on our side.

Quality > quantity.

Portfolio results in August

• Picks’ annualized return is now 50%, compared to 46% in July, 61% in June, 64% in May, 51% in April, and 38% in March.

• NO Loser status is now lost, with 11/12 making money, and 26/28 transactions were correct decisions.

• 2025 Year-to-date return was 14% vs. S&P500 9%: ~5% outperformance.

• Return from inception was 35% vs. S&P500 24%: ~11% outperformance.

Upgrade to premium

How did we capitalize on the two buys in August? Read the following articles

• 20th sleep well - [deep dive, 2nd buy, 1st buy, Q2’25 update]

• 21st sleep well - [deep dive, 1st buy]

• Buying plan for the 20th and 21st pick

• Adding to my top position [deep dive, 4th buy, 3rd buy, 2nd buy, 1st buy, tariff review, Q2’25, Q1’25, Q4’24, Q3’24, Q2’24 update]

In July and Aug, we reviewed Q2’25 results:

• VAT Group - Shares nearing an attractive point

• 18th Sleep Well H1’25 - Hidden growth

• 20th Sleep Well Q2’25 - Likely Adding More

• Sea Limited Q2’25 - The best is yet to come

• 21st Pick Q2’25 - The market doesn’t understand

• Mercado Libre Q2'25 - Shopee's Success Is Causing Troubles

New to SWI?

About us, and start here.

If you are an annual premium member, all essential write-ups on our picks are on this tracking sheet.

**The spreadsheet contains all the links to thesis updates, buy-and-sell, and deep dives.

Current portfolio - 1 loser

Previously, July 2025 - 2 losers

Previously, June 2025

Previously, May 2025

Previously, April 2025

Previously, Mar 2025

Transactions with notes below:

Performance reporting since inception 35% vs 24% S&P500 - Interactive Brokers:

Expanding investment universe

You will only see me buying businesses that I thoroughly know (see the deep dives below). I’ll expand the list when I find ones that pass the Sleep Well Investments checklist.

Thesis tracking updates - linked in spreadsheet

One key reason for my impressive investment decision record so far is the tracking system I employ. You can track the table and notes in the spreadsheet linked next. However, it’s only for annual premium readers.

**Links to thesis updates, buy-and-sell, and deep dives are all in the Sleep Well Portfolio spreadsheet. (Annual Sub only)

Businesses I am currently considering and Sleep Well Picks to add now.

A basket of luxury (LMVH, Hermes, Kering, Brunello, Ferrari), ASML, Evolution Gaming, Airbnb, Ferguson, TerraVest, IES Holdings, Teqnion AB, Manhattan Associates, Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte, Uber, Veralto, Nekkar, Subaru, Axon, TMO.

See the Sleep Well Portfolio spreadsheet (Annual Sub only) for a complete list and reasoning of what and why (and why not) I am studying them.

Sleep well picks that are good buys right now.

As I write, I believe the following businesses are still good buys.

Please review the deep dives and updates before considering a purchase of these businesses. If you don’t know what you own, you won’t know what to do with your shares when the market overreacts.

• 20th sleep well - Supply Chain Network leader [deep dive, 2nd buy, 1st buy, Q2’25 update]

• 21st sleep well - Public Safety SaaS leader [deep dive, 1st buy]

• Mercado Libre - most impressive execution amid political uncertainties.

  [The Most Sleep Well Investment Of LATAM, Tariff Review, Top pick for 2025, Q4’24, Q3’24, Buy Alert]

• Grab - steady market share gains and profitability amid local competition.

  [deep dive, Tariff Review, Q4’24, local competition, buy alert, Q3’24 update]

• Veeva Systems - no viable alternative within the life science SaaS, Salesforce + IQVIA partnership is a disjointed solution. [deep dive part 1, part 2, Tariff Review, Q3’24, CRM+ IQVIA]

• Sea Limited - Return of growth in the former core segment (gaming), with the e-commerce arm starting to become profitable, driven by low-cost logistics, the fintech arm generating significant profits, and advertising just getting started. [deep dive, 4th buy, 3rd buy, 2nd buy, 1st buy, tariff review, Q2’25, Q1’25, Q4’24, Q3’24, Q2’24 update]

• Logistics Leader - less expensive given the leadership instability (a temporary issue, in my opinion). [deep dive, Tariff Review, Buy alert 1, Buy alert 2, H125 update, CEO update, FY24 update]

• Naval Engineering gold standard - indisputable leader and a good candidate to preserve wealth. [deep dive, BUY, Tariff Review]

• VAT - pick and shovels of the semiconductor and AI mega trend. [Q2’25, Q1’25, Tariff Review, Top pick beyond 2025, Deep dive]

Sleep Well Portfolio reviews

How can Sleep Well Investments help you?

1. High success rate stock picks—50% annualized time-weighted. Only 1/12 are losers.

2. High-quality research and detailed follow-up. Buy and verify.

3. Free samples of deep dives, tracking updates, and buy alerts.

4. Free knowledge of the investment framework to help find quality companies and execute with discipline.

5. Free book reviews on Pulak Prasad’s, Terry Smith's (15% CAGR), Scott Fraser's (19% CAGR), Ralph Wanger's (16% CAGR), and Peter Lynch's (29% CAGR) teaching.

Disclaimer:

As a reader of Sleep Well Investments, you agree to our disclaimer. You can read it in full here.

Build your Sleep Well Portfolio today

Good morning, sleep-well owners,

The market is back with uncertainties in July after a cheery June. After adding the first position for the 20th and 21st picks. July was about focusing on these two Q2’25 results to ensure the second add would be for the right reasons.

Considering one of the buys dropped by 20% while the business quality remains intact, the Buying plan drawn out in June is working out correctly. The lower price is very welcome, as it allows us to own a little more of the business now.

Both are available at reasonable valuations, between 28-35x free cash flow, offering midterm 15-30% free cash flow growth, pristine balance sheets, and limited competition.

Don’t miss out:

• 20th sleep well - Supply Chain Network leader [deep dive, 1st buy alert, Q2’25 update]

• 21st sleep well - Public Safety SaaS leader [deep dive, buy alert]

• Buying plan for the 20th and 21st pick

Q2’25 results reviewed so far:

• VAT Group - Shares nearing attractive point

• 18th Sleep Well H1’25 - Hidden growth

• 20th Sleep Well Q2’25 - Likely Adding More

Coincidentally, both 20th and 21st picks are seeing their founder-CEO, who has held the role for 20 years, step down, so the added leadership uncertainty presents an excellent opportunity to accumulate shares.

Quick overview of July:

• The portfolio's annualized return per pick is now 46%, compared to 61% in June, 64% in May, 51% in April, and 38% in March.

• NO Loser status is now lost (the two losers are two new buys in June that we had laid out a clear buying plan), with 10/12 making money, and 24/27 transactions were correct decisions.

• 2025 Year-to-date return was 14% vs S&P500 7.5%: ~6.5% outperformance.

• Return from inception was 36% vs. S&P500 22%: 14% outperformance.

How do we do it?

• We are active in fearful periods and quiet in happy times. July saw a return of tariff uncertainties, and I am hoping for lower prices in the coming months. It’s a good time to review the tariff resistance health checks I wrote in March. I also reviewed Magnificent Seven, and used the volatility to buy more Sea Limited (up 72%), Wisetech (up 36%), and GTT (up 17%), and sold MIPS (for a 10% gain).

• We are focused on owning only the highest-quality businesses. The 20th and 21st picks are the focus for now.

• Daily prices and news seldom catch our attention. Stock price fluctuations don’t alter the underlying value of our businesses, so we observe them, buy at fair prices, and keep learning. It’s repeatable.

Upgrade to premium

Remember, Sleep Well is all about not losing. We have likely found a good formula, and I am excited about the future. Time is on our side.

Quality > quantity.

If you are new to Sleep Well Investments, start here.

I am currently relocating to Asia and will review more earning results after mid-August, including those from our largest positions: Sea Limited, Mecardo Libre, and Grab. Schedules below:

**Links to thesis updates, buy-and-sell, and deep dives are all in the Sleep Well Portfolio spreadsheet.

Current portfolio - 2 losers (intended).

Previously June 2025

Previously - May 2025

Previously - April 2025

Previously - Mar 2025

Consider becoming an annual premium member to track the Sleep Well Portfolio, transactions, and Sleep Well scores. The link to the Sleep Well Portfolio Spreadsheet is here. For all other write-ups, click here.

Transactions with notes below:

Performance reporting since inception 36% vs 22% S&P500 - Interactive Brokers:

Expanding investment universe

You will only see me buying businesses that I thoroughly know (see the deep dives below). I’ll expand the list when I find ones that pass the Sleep Well Investments checklist.

Thesis tracking updates - linked in spreadsheet

One key reason for my incredible investment decision record so far is that I have a tracking system that allows me to observe the progress of my businesses over time. You can track the table and notes in the spreadsheet linked next. However, it’s only for annual premium readers.

**Links to thesis updates, buy-and-sell, and deep dives are all in the Sleep Well Portfolio spreadsheet. (Annual Sub only)

Businesses I am currently considering and Sleep Well Picks to add now.

A basket of luxury (LMVH, Hermes, Kering, Brunello, Ferrari), ASML, Evolution Gaming, Airbnb, Ferguson, TerraVest, IES Holdings, Teqnion AB, Manhattan Associates, Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte, Uber, Veralto, Nekkar, Subaru, Axon, TMO.

See the Sleep Well Portfolio spreadsheet (Annual Sub only) for a complete list and reasoning of what and why (and why not) I am studying them.

Sleep well picks that are good buys right now.

As I write, I believe the following businesses are still good buys.

Please review the deep dives and updates before considering a purchase of these businesses. If you don’t know what you own, you won’t know what to do with your shares when the market overreacts.

• 20th sleep well - Supply Chain Network leader [deep dive, 1st buy alert, Q2’25 update]

• 21st sleep well - Public Safety SaaS leader [deep dive, buy alert]

• Mercado Libre - most impressive execution amid political uncertainties.

  [The Most Sleep Well Investment Of LATAM, Tariff Review, Top pick for 2025, Q4’24, Q3’24, Buy Alert]

• Grab - steady market share gains and profitability amid local competition.

  [deep dive, Tariff Review, Q4’24, local competition, buy alert, Q3’24 update]

• Veeva Systems - no viable alternative within the life science SaaS, Salesforce + IQVIA partnership is a disjointed solution. [deep dive part 1, part 2, Tariff Review, Q3’24, CRM+ IQVIA]

• Sea Limited - Return of growth in the former core segment (gaming), with the e-commerce arm starting to become profitable, driven by low-cost logistics, the fintech arm generating significant profits, and advertising just getting started. [deep dive, buy alert 3, buy alert 2, buy alert 1, Tariff Review, Q3’24, Q2’24 update]

• Logistics Leader - less expensive given the leadership instability (a temporary issue, in my opinion). [deep dive, Tariff Review, Buy alert 1, Buy alert 2, H125 update, CEO update, FY24 update]

• Naval Engineering gold standard - indisputable leader and a good candidate to preserve wealth. [deep dive, BUY, Tariff Review]

• VAT - pick and shovels of the semiconductor and AI mega trend. [Q2’25, Q1’25, Tariff Review, Top pick beyond 2025, Deep dive]

Sleep Well Portfolio reviews

How can Sleep Well Investments help you?

1. High success rate stock picks—46% annualized time-weighted. Only 2/12 are losers (intended).

2. High-quality research and detailed follow-up. Buy and verify.

3. Free samples of deep dives, tracking updates, and buy alerts.

4. Free knowledge of investment framework to help find quality companies and execute with discipline.

5. Free book reviews on Pulak Prasad’s, Terry Smith's (15% CAGR), Scott Fraser's (19% CAGR), Ralph Wanger's (16% CAGR), and Peter Lynch's (29% CAGR) teaching.

Disclaimer:

As a reader of Sleep Well Investments, you agree to our disclaimer. You can read it in full here.

Build your Sleep Well Portfolio today

Good morning, sleep-well owners,

The market was in a good mood in June, so I was pleased to introduce two niche leaders [20th, 21st]. Both are available at very reasonable valuations, between 28-35x free cash flow, offering midterm 20-30% free cash flow growth, pristine balance sheets, and limited competition.

Paid members said one was very ‘juicy’. Don’t miss out.

• 20th sleep well - Supply Chain Network leader [deep dive, buy alert]

• 21st sleep well - Public Safety SaaS leader [deep dive, buy alert]

Coincidentally, both are seeing their founder-CEO, who has held the role for 20 years, step down, so the leadership uncertainty presents an excellent opportunity to accumulate shares.

Quick overview of June:

• The portfolio's annualized return per pick is now 61%, compared to 64% in May, 51% in April, and 38% in March.

• NO Loser status is narrowly retained (the one loser is at a 1% loss), with 11/12 making money, and 24/26 transactions were correct decisions.

• 2025 Year-to-date return was 15% vs S&P500 5.5%: ~9.5% outperformance.

• Return from inception was 37% vs. S&P500 20%: 17% outperformance.

How do we do it?

• We are active in fearful periods and quiet in happy times. In March and April, we reviewed every pick for their tariff resistance, reviewed Magnificent Seven, bought Sea Limited (up 72%), Wisetech (up 36%), and GTT (up 17%), and sold MIPS (for a 10% gain). In May, we reviewed Q1’25 results of most picks, and in June, we dived deep into two leaders at great prices.

• We are focused on owning only the highest-quality businesses.

• Daily prices and news seldom catch our attention. Stock price fluctuations don’t alter the true value of our businesses, so we observe them, buy at fair prices, and keep learning. It’s straightforward.

Upgrade to premium

Remember, Sleep Well is all about not losing. We have likely found a good formula, and I am excited about the future. Time is on our side.

Quality > quantity.

Trung

Current portfolio - No losers.

Previously - May 2025

Previously - April 2025

Previously - Mar 2025

Consider becoming an annual premium member to track the Sleep Well Portfolio, transactions, and Sleep Well scores. The link to the Sleep Well Portfolio Spreadsheet is here. For all other write-ups, click here.

Transactions with notes below:

Performance reporting since inception 37% vs 20% S&P500 - Interactive Brokers:

Expanding investment universe

You will only see me buying businesses that I thoroughly know (see the deep dives below). I’ll expand the list when I find ones that pass the Sleep Well Investments checklist.

Thesis tracking updates - linked in spreadsheet

One key reason for my incredible investment decision record so far is that I have a tracking system that allows me to observe the progress of my businesses over time. You can track the table and notes in the spreadsheet linked next. However, it’s only for annual premium readers.

**Links to thesis updates, buy-and-sell, and deep dives are all in the Sleep Well Portfolio spreadsheet. (Annual Sub only)

Businesses I am currently considering and Sleep Well Picks to add now.

A basket of luxury (LMVH, Hermes, Kering, Brunello, Ferrari), ASML, Evolution Gaming, Airbnb, Ferguson, TerraVest, IES Holdings, Teqnion AB, Manhattan Associates, Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte, Uber, Veralto, Nekkar, Subaru, Axon, TMO.

Sleep well picks that are good buys right now.

As I write, I believe the following businesses are still good buys. However, as markets are currently in a happy mood…I’d wait for pullbacks or buy in stages.

Please visit the deep dives and updates before considering buying these businesses. If you don’t know what you own, you won’t know what to do with your shares when the market overreacts.

• 20th sleep well - Supply Chain Network leader [deep dive, buy alert]

• 21st sleep well - Public Safety SaaS leader [deep dive, buy alert]

• Mercado Libre - most impressive execution amid political uncertainties.

  [The Most Sleep Well Investment Of LATAM, Tariff Review, Top pick for 2025, Q4’24, Q3’24, Buy Alert]

• Grab - steady market share gains and profitability amid local competition.

  [deep dive, Tariff Review, Q4’24, local competition, buy alert, Q3’24 update]

• Veeva Systems - no viable alternative within the life science SaaS, Salesforce + IQVIA partnership is a disjointed solution.

  [deep dive part 1, part 2, Tariff Review, Q3’24, CRM+ IQVIA]

• Sea Limited - Return of growth in the former core segment (gaming), with the e-commerce arm starting to become profitable, driven by low-cost logistics, the fintech arm generating significant profits, and advertising just getting started.

  [deep dive, buy alert, Tariff Review, Q3’24, Q2’24 update]

• Logistics Leader - less expensive given the leadership instability (a temporary issue, in my opinion).

  [deep dive, Tariff Review, BUY, H125 update, CEO update, FY24 update]

• Naval Engineering gold standard - indisputable leader and a good candidate to preserve wealth.

  [deep dive, BUY, Tariff Review]

• VAT - pick and shovels of the semiconductor and AI mega trend. [Q1’25, Tariff review, Top pick beyond 2025, Deep dive]

Sleep Well Portfolio reviews

How can Sleep Well Investments help you?

1. High success rate stock picks—61% annualized time-weighted. No losers.

2. High-quality research and detailed follow-up. Buy and verify.

3. Free samples of deep dives, tracking updates, and buy alerts.

4. Free knowledge of investment framework to help find quality companies and execute with discipline.

5. Free book reviews on Pulak Prasad’s, Terry Smith's (15% CAGR), Scott Fraser's (19% CAGR), Ralph Wanger's (16% CAGR), and Peter Lynch's (29% CAGR) teaching.

Disclaimer:

As a reader of Sleep Well Investments, you agree with our disclaimer. You can read the full disclaimer here.

Build your Sleep Well Portfolio today

Good morning, sleep-well owners,

May was relatively calm after two months of volatility. As such, I didn’t feel Mr. Market was offering good deals within my investment universe (19 and counting) for me to deploy cash.

Tomorrow, I’ll release my 20th Sleep Well pick, which is available at a 10-year low valuation despite generating a 40% CAGR for free cash flow per share in the past 10 years.

• The portfolio's annualized return per pick is now 64%, compared to 51% in April and 38% in March.

• NO Loser status was retained, 10/10 made money, and 23/24 transactions were correct decisions.

• The pair bought and sold in April yielded an 81% gain.

• 2025 Year-to-date return was 14.5% vs S&P500 0.5%: 14% outperformance.

• Return from inception was 36% vs. S&P500 14%: 22% outperformance.

How do we do it?

• We are active in fearful periods and quiet in happy times. In March and April, we reviewed every pick for tariff resistance, reviewed Magnificent Seven, bought Sea Limited (up 72%), Wisetech (up 36%), and GTT (up 17%), and sold MIPS (for a 10% gain).

• We are focused on buying only the highest-quality businesses, so we don’t panic-sell or buy cheap stocks easily.

In May

We reviewed Q1’25 results of VAT, Kinsale, MIPS, Mercado Libre, Sea Limited, and Grab. We reviewed Wisetech's most significant acquisition in its history and the transition of the Mercado Libre CEO.

June?

I’ll share the 20th sleep well pick tomorrow (Sunday, 1st June).

Then, next week, I will examine Veeva and CrowdStrike Q1.

Upgrade to premium

Remember, Sleep Well is all about not losing. We likely have found a good formula, and I am excited for the future. Time is on our side.

Quality > quantity.

Trung

Current portfolio - No losers.

Previously - April 2025

Previously - Mar 2025

Consider becoming an annual premium member to track the Sleep Well Portfolio, transactions, and Sleep Well scores. The link to the Sleep Well Portfolio Spreadsheet is here. For all other write-ups, click here.

Transactions with notes below:

Performance reporting since inception 36% vs 14% S&P500 - Interactive Brokers:

Expanding investment universe

You will only see buy alerts from businesses I deep-dived into below, as I only own what I understand thoroughly. I’ll expand the list when I find ones that pass the Sleep Well Investments checklist.

Thesis tracking updates - linked in spreadsheet

One key reason for my incredible investment decision record so far is that I have a tracking system that allows me to observe the progress of my businesses over time. You can track the table and notes in the spreadsheet linked next. However, it’s only for annual premium readers.

**Links to thesis updates, buy-and-sell, and deep dives are all in the Sleep Well Portfolio spreadsheet. (Annual Sub only)

Businesses I am currently considering and Sleep Well Picks to add now.

A basket of luxury (LMVH, Hermes, Kering, Brunello, Ferrari), ASML, Evolution Gaming, Airbnb, Ferguson, TerraVest, IES Holdings, Teqnion AB, Manhattan Associates, Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte, Uber, Veralto, Nekkar, Subaru, Axon, TMO.

Sleep well picks that are good buys right now.

As I write, I believe the following businesses are good buys. But as markets are in a happy mood currently…I’d wait for pullbacks or buy in stages.

Please visit the deep dives and updates before considering buying these businesses. If you don’t know what you own, you won’t know what to do with your shares when the market overreacts.

• Mercado Libre - most impressive execution amid political uncertainties.

  [The Most Sleep Well Investment Of LATAM, Tariff Review, Top pick for 2025, Q4’24, Q3’24, Buy Alert]

• Grab - steady market share gains and profitability amid local competition.

  [deep dive, Tariff Review, Q4’24, local competition, buy alert, Q3’24 update]

• Veeva Systems - no viable alternative within the life science SaaS, Salesforce + IQVIA partnership is a disjointed solution.

  [deep dive part 1, part 2, Tariff Review, Q3’24, CRM+ IQVIA]

• Sea Limited - Return of growth in the former core segment (gaming), with the e-commerce arm starting to become profitable, driven by low-cost logistics, the fintech arm generating significant profits, and advertising just getting started.

  [deep dive, buy alert, Tariff Review, Q3’24, Q2’24 update]

• Kinsale - best low-cost operator in a niche insurance segment.

  [deep dive, Q1’25, Q4’24, Q3’24, Q2’24 update, and ownership alert.]

• Logistics Leader - less expensive given the leadership instability (a temporary issue, in my opinion).

  [deep dive, Tariff Review, BUY, H125 update, CEO update, FY24 update]

• Naval Engineering gold standard - indisputable leader and a good candidate to preserve wealth.

  [deep dive, BUY, Tariff Review]

• VAT - pick and shovels of the semiconductor and AI mega trend. [Q1’25, Tariff review, Top pick beyond 2025, Deep dive]

Sleep Well Portfolio reviews

How can Sleep Well Investments help you?

1. High success rate stock picks—64% annualized time-weighted. No losers.

2. High-quality research and detailed follow-up. Buy and verify.

3. Free samples of deep dives, tracking updates, and buy alerts.

4. Free knowledge of investment framework to help find quality companies and execute with discipline.

5. Free book reviews on Pulak Prasad’s, Terry Smith's (15% CAGR), Scott Fraser's (19% CAGR), Ralph Wanger's (16% CAGR), and Peter Lynch's (29% CAGR) teaching.

Disclaimer:

As a reader of Sleep Well Investments, you agree with our disclaimer. You can read the full disclaimer here.

Build your Sleep Well Portfolio today

Good morning, sleep-well owners,

April was again volatile, even more than March. I am proud that our businesses were all resilient and passing the tariff test in flying colours. However, I am not resting until my kids have their college fund in order.

• The portfolio's annualized return per pick is now 51% compared to 38% in March.

• NO Loser achieved, 10/10 made money, 23/24 transactions were correct decisions.

• The pair bought and sold in April yielded a 44% gain.

• 2025 Year-to-date return was 7% vs S&P500 -5%: 12% outperformance.

• Return from inception was 26% vs. S&P500 8%: 18% outperformance.

How did we do it?

• We did not panic-sell or buy cheap stocks. We managed our FOMO and added the highest-quality ones.

• Reviewed every holding for tariff resistance, highlighting five worth adding.

• Reviewed Magnificent Seven to see which was worth adding.

• Bought one highly insulated business (vs three buys in March) and sold the most impacted one.

In April, we also reviewed the Q1 results of VAT, Kinsale, and MIPS, gaining lots of valuable insights into how these businesses managed uncertainties. One will likely be added to the portfolio soon. Stay tuned.

Remember, Sleep Well is all about not losing. Return will come!

Quality > quantity.

Trung

Upgrade to premium

Current portfolio - No losers.

Previously - Mar 2025

Consider becoming an annual premium member to track the Sleep Well Portfolio, transactions, and Sleep Well scores. The link to the Sleep Well Portfolio Spreadsheet is here. For all other write-ups, click here.

Transactions with notes below:

Performance reporting since inception 26% vs 8% S&P500 - Interactive Brokers:

Expanding investment universe

You will only see buy alerts from the abovementioned businesses, as I only buy what I deeply understand. I’ll expand the list when I find ones that pass the Sleep Well Investments checklist.

Thesis tracking updates - linked in spreadsheet

**Links to thesis updates, buy-and-sell, and deep dives are all in the Sleep Well Portfolio spreadsheet. (Annual Sub only)

Businesses I am currently considering and Sleep Well Picks to add now.

A basket of luxury (LMVH, Hermes, Kering, Brunello, Ferrari), ASML, Evolution Gaming, Airbnb, Ferguson, TerraVest, IES Holdings, Teqnion AB, Manhattan Associates, Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte, Uber, Veralto, Nekkar, Subaru, Axon, TMO.

Sleep well picks that are good buys right now.

I believe the following businesses are good buys as I am writing.

Please visit the deep dives and updates before considering buying these businesses. If you don’t know what you own, you won’t know what to do with your shares when the market overreacts.

• Mercado Libre - most impressive execution amid political uncertainties.

  [The Most Sleep Well Investment Of LATAM, Tariff Review, Top pick for 2025, Q4’24, Q3’24, Buy Alert]

• Grab - steady market share gains and profitability amid local competition.

  [deep dive, Tariff Review, Q4’24, local competition, buy alert, Q3’24 update]

• Veeva Systems - no viable alternative within the life science SaaS, Salesforce + IQVIA partnership is a disjointed solution.

  [deep dive part 1, part 2, Tariff Review, Q3’24, CRM+ IQVIA]

• Sea Limited - Return of growth in the former core segment (gaming), with the e-commerce arm starting to become profitable, driven by low-cost logistics, the fintech arm generating significant profits, and advertising just getting started.

  [deep dive, buy alert, Tariff Review, Q3’24, Q2’24 update]

• Kinsale - best low-cost operator in a niche insurance segment.

  [deep dive, Q1’25, Q4’24, Q3’24, Q2’24 update, and ownership alert.]

• Logistics Leader - less expensive given the leadership instability (a temporary issue, in my opinion).

  [deep dive, Tariff Review, BUY, H125 update, CEO update, FY24 update]

• Naval Engineering gold standard - indisputable leader and a good candidate to preserve wealth.

  [deep dive, BUY, Tariff Review]

• VAT - pick and shovels of the semiconductor and AI mega trend. [Q1’25, Tariff review, Top pick beyond 2025, Deep dive]

Sleep Well Portfolio reviews

How can Sleep Well Investments help you?

1. High success rate stock picks—51% time-weighted (42% money-weighted).

2. High-quality research and detailed follow-up. Buy and verify.

3. Free samples of deep dives, tracking updates, and buy alerts.

4. Free knowledge of investment framework to help find quality companies and execute with discipline.

5. Free book reviews on Pulak Prasad’s, Terry Smith's (15% CAGR), Scott Fraser's (19% CAGR), Ralph Wanger's (16% CAGR), and Peter Lynch's (29% CAGR) teaching.

Disclaimer:

As a reader of Sleep Well Investments, you agree with our disclaimer. You can read the full disclaimer here.

I've returned from my no-screen time holiday. I hope you have had a relaxing time with family and friends.

Checking stock charts for the first time, it looks like the past month was the first test for Sleep Well Investments.

I am glad it outperformed the market both during the downturn and on the way up; the purchase I made before leaving yielded a 32% return. Great! However, no other orders set before my holiday were filled.

In this brief note, I outline:

1. How Sleep Well Investments outperformed in volatile times,

2. What does history from 1870 tell us?

3. What opportunities can we take today?

Outperform the way down.

The chart below presents the stock movement of the portfolio companies from December 31, 2024, to April 7, 2025.

The S&P 500 declined 13.94%, underperforming eight sleep well picks and overperforming two (-26% and -44%).

Outperform on the way up.

On the rebound since April 7th, the S&P500 gained 4.38%, below nine sleep well picks and higher than just one.

During this time, one of the companies highlighted in the tariff impact review report I wrote before the holiday had also reached a new all-time high. Yes, it’s Dino Polska.

The overperformance in both the downturn and the upturn, albeit for a short period, is very encouraging, demonstrating the resilience and quality of the businesses.

But if you have been following my work, you would know the portfolio was built for events like this.

You would also know that I love events like the current one.

Why?

• Fear drives short-term investors out, providing more attractive prices for high-quality companies.

• Market-changing events expose weak businesses and show which ones are well-prepared.

I took the opportunity before my holiday to make Sleep Well more resilient.

How?

• Revaluated all 11 holdings for tariff resiliency.

• Reviewed Haven businesses - The Magnificent 7.

Result?

• Short-term: Added to the least impacted business and sold the most impacted one. (no. 23rd and 24th) yielded a 32% gain.

• Medium-term: Raised some cash to take advantage of future volatility. (Not saying the market will drop more)

• Long-term: The portfolio now owns only companies that have a limited and indirect impact on tariffs.

Did we learn anything?

• The tariff war has had the most significant impact on the US stock market. Opportunities abound in non-US regions, as they have also been sold off.

• More volatility is expected for now.

What’s next?

The US is the largest consumer, and China is the largest producer. One is trying to stay as the world leader, and one is starting to become one. Will there ever be a mutually beneficial situation for both parties?

I don’t know.

However, my simplistic prediction is that by 2037, when the Sleep Well Portfolio is passed on to my children, global trade will continue to grow from today, even if we have a World War III.

Below, you can see that international trade has grown steadily since 1870, with an increasing number of countries engaging in trade with each other, as indicated by the higher S index.

The following shows that global trade contributes to 40-50% of the world’s GDP, having steadily increased from 20% after World War II.

Even if the US succeeds in reshoring the manufacturing of key goods and services, imports and exports of raw materials, in-process goods, and finished goods will still involve the rest of the world.

Yes, that is naive and simplistic thinking, but I can’t invest in the stock market long-term if I am not an optimist capitalist (could be grammatically wrong).

Next, the 2018-2019 US-China trade war provides a glimpse of what could unfold in the next 12 to 24 months.

First, the US-China bilateral trade is expected to decline; however, this will be compensated by increased trade from ‘bystanders’ (EU countries) and rerouted trade routes, such as those through Vietnam and Malaysia.

In addition, if we split out trade in goods and services, we can expect trade in goods to decline, as it did in 2018-19. However, services are expected to remain stable and even increase in some sectors, as they are mostly exempt from tariffs.

Overall, nothing surprising.

But here lies the opportunity.

(i) The global trade makes the supply chain more complicated with elongated freight routes,

(ii) There could be more trades from bystanders to the US/China and between themselves,

(iii) Services trade flow could remain stable or even increase in some sectors.

You may see lots of opportunities.

Within the Sleep Well universe. I see many!

Point (i) will bring more business to

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They have a combined market capitalization of $13.5 trillion and are considered the best businesses and safe havens. But that didn’t stop the market from selling them down by an average of 22% from the recent peak.

With the discount, I want to see if anything is attractive compared to our sleep-well picks.

The table below shows that Google (Alphabet) is the cheapest with 25x EV/FCF. Apple, Meta, and Amazon follow with 26-37x FCF.

But I believe Amazon is the dark horse. It doesn’t look cheap on a 36x FCF multiple, but if we look at OCF (operating cash flow), then the current price is the cheapest in the last 10 years, at just 16x. If, in 5 years, it decides to turn off capex, its free cash flow multiple would be the lowest of these Mag7, given it spent the most in CAPEX as well at ~$80B in 2024, vs ~$50B for Google and Meta, and $10B for Apple.

In addition, Amazon's competitive position seems to be more stable. Its advertising engine is better than Meta and Google’s, given its users’ higher purchasing intention, and its ecosystem is more tariff-insulated than Apple’s product-based model.

Which Mag7 is your winner?

Subscribe now

Mine is Amazon.

But, I believe the two sleep-well picks - Sea Limited and Mercado Libre, are even better!

You can pay the same P/OCF for Sea Limited and even less at 12x OCF for Mercardo Libre. They do not have an AWS segment attached to them, but they have a rapidly growing and profitable fintech segment (and gaming for Sea Limited) that still takes 5-10 years to mature.

In addition, Sea Limited's e-commerce arm is even more dominant in Southeast Asia, at ~50%, more than Amazon in the US at ~38%, and Mercado Libre in Latin America at ~30%.

But you are worried they might suffer heavily if the tariff war worsens?

Don’t!

Sea Limited and Mercado Libre are the least affected businesses thanks to their regional-focused operations, dynamic and under-penetrated demographics, and profoundly entrenched market positions in the respective regions.

Sea Limited readings - deep dive, buy alert 2, buy alert 1, Q4’24, Q3’24, Q2’24 update

Meli readings - deep dive, Top pick for 2025+, Q4’24, Q3’24 review, Buy alert,

I reviewed these two and all other sleep-well picks in light of the new tariff environment in this report. I didn’t want to let this crisis go to waste. It’s a great time to clean up the house and ensure our portfolio is built for whatever comes at it. Luckily, I found that nine of 11 holdings are safe; one will benefit as it worsens, and one requires trimming.

Grab the report here.

I also offer the first 10 members 15% off the annual plan, and the offer ends on Tuesday, 8th April.

Hurry, grab the big discount Mr. Market is giving you below.

Get 15% off for 1 year

For all write-ups, click the link below:

Disclaimer: As a reader of Sleep Well Investments, you agree with our disclaimer. You can read the full disclaimer here.

And it always recovers.

The caveat is that it only applies to high-quality businesses. Low-quality ones may never return. For example, a company on the S&P500 index has an average lifespan of just 16 years in 2024.

Market changes will shorten the life of a company on the index. The current tariff war will churn out many of them.

So there are a few things you can do today.

1. Ensure you own resilient businesses with plenty of buffers and redundancies.

2. Don’t panic-sell; all businesses will suffer, but unequally, providing opportunities.

3. Don’t panic add, just because a stock is cheaper! Weak businesses may not recover.

4. Take the special offer at the end of this section.

We have 19 sleep-well businesses and are invested in 11.

In the last few days, I have reevaluated them and found nine are well insulated from tariff woes, one is a key beneficiary, and one should be cut.

Before we do that, let me remind you that we have experienced many profound crises. The 55% crash in 2008 or the 38% fall in 2020 makes the current 18% decline of the S&P500 small. But since 1870, the market has always recovered and will reward your patience—if you know what you own.

Another caveat is that the current stock market sell-off is likely due to an effort to rebalance the US trade deficits and reindustrialize (reshore manufacturing). It can end quickly or drag on for a long time.

For now, President Trump’s 10% baseline tariff for all imports and 25-90% elevated tariffs on targeted countries—the EU, China (and its backdoor, Vietnam), Japan, and Korea—show that the ‘rationale’ is that the higher the trade deficit against the US, the higher the tariff. The top six nations causing US trade deficits in 2024 were China, the EU, Mexico, Vietnam, Taiwan, and Japan, totaling a $1 trillion deficit. All face heavy tariffs. Meanwhile, the four trade surplus partners were Argentina, Brazil, Australia, and the UK. They will have softer blows.

Industry-wise, EV, manufacturing, electronics, e-retailing, and rare minerals industries are hit the hardest.

I expect more uncertainties, and it may require a few quarters of ‘slower global growth’ for leaders to work out a win-win scenario.

In the meantime, it’s our chance to improve the quality of our portfolio and build mental fortitude to stay the course.

Time in the market > timing the market.

Executive summary:

• Nine of our sleep-well businesses have minimal direct impact from the tariff; four don’t have any operations in the US, and their competitors will suffer more in this challenging period.

• Eleven niche leaders are incredibly resilient. All have been robust during past crises and agile when needed. Ten have a net cash balance sheet to buffer a prolonged trade war.

I see four worthy of addition, one worthy of trimming, and six not at an attractive price yet.

Let’s go over all of them.

Tariff Impact and Sleep Well Ownership Review

The following section is for premium members. As the stock offers nice discounts for tariff-resistant businesses, I want to share it with new premium members who have followed my free content for a while.

Here is 15% off the annual plan for the first 10 members, and it ends on Tuesday, 8th April.

Hurry, grab the big discount Mr. Market is giving you below.

Get 15% off for 1 year

Read more

Build your Sleep Well Portfolio today

Good morning, sleep-well owners,

Given the ongoing tariff war, March was very volatile. But, Sleep Well Portfolio is well prepared as it is diversified across:

• 5 Continents: N. America - 3, Europe - 3, Asia -2, Australia - 1, S. America - 1.

• 8 Industries: life science, cyber security, technology, logistics, consumer discretionary, insurance, semiconductors.

• Customers: large enterprises, SMEs, consumers, and governments.

• Products: physical goods, services, royalties, use-base, per seat, long-term contracts

• Business models: platforms, licensing, product-as-a-service, fabless manufacturing,

• Capital allocation priorities: Six are focused on growth, and four are balanced, with two paying dividends (2% and 5.5%).

I also took the opportunity to add to three positions (one helps logistics companies navigate tariffs and customs!) and published two new sleep-well picks (Naval Engineering Leader, European Centenary Family Business).

Performance was steady:

• Sleep Well Portfolio's time-weighted gain per pick was 38% (33% money-weighted).

• 9/11 made money, only two losers. 18/22 transactions are correct decisions.

• 2025 Year-to-date return was 3% vs S&P500 -4%: 7% outperformance.

• Return from inception was 22% vs. S&P500 8%: 14% outperformance.

Consider becoming an annual premium member to track the Sleep Well Portfolio, transactions, and Sleep Well scores. The link to the Sleep Well Portfolio Spreadsheet is here. For all other write-ups, click here.

Upgrade to premium

Quality > quantity

Trung

Sleep Well Portfolio reviews

How can Sleep Well Investments help you?

1. High success rate stock picks—38% time-weighted (33% time-weighted).

2. High-quality research and detailed follow-up. Buy and verify.

3. Free samples of deep dives, tracking updates, and buy alerts.

4. Free knowledge of investment framework to help find quality companies and execute with discipline.

5. Free book reviews on Pulak Prasad’s, Terry Smith's (15% CAGR), Scott Fraser's (19% CAGR), Ralph Wanger's (16% CAGR), and Peter Lynch's (29% CAGR) teaching.

Current portfolio (Mar 2025)

Read more

I feel well-prepared for the unknown.

Look through

• Average return on capital invested (ROIC): 23%

• Average reinvestment rate: 70%+

• Average free cash flow per share growth: 38%

• Average net cash as % of market cap: 6%, 9 of 10 are net cash

• 4 US, 3 Europe, 2 Asia, 1 Australia, 1 Latin America

• Capital allocation: 2 pay dividends, 6 reinvest all excess cash on growth.

The portfolio is concentrated with 10 holdings, and the investment universe is highly selective, with 18 so far (goal: <40).

There is no point investing in your 20th best idea.

I build the portfolio to prepare for the knowable unknowns:

1. Wars

2. Tariffs

3. Recessions

4. US overvaluation

5. Region-specific volatilities

It is well-diversified across

• 5 Continents: N. America - 3, Europe - 3, Asia -2, Australia - 1, S. America - 1.

• 8 Industries: life science, cyber security, technology, logistics, consumer discretionary, insurance, semiconductors.

• Customers: large enterprises, SMEs, consumers, and governments.

• Products: physical goods, services, royalties, use-base, per seat, long-term contracts

• Business models: platforms, licensing, product-as-a-service, fabless manufacturing,

• Capital allocation priorities: Six are focused on growth, and four are balanced, with two paying dividends (2% and 5.5%).

I track all holdings methodologically to identify mistakes early and capitalize on market overactions. 4 sales out of 4 have been correct, and 9 out of 10 purchases have an average gain of 49%.

The tracking sheet above helps visualize each pick's progress very quickly. Green means good, yellow means need to watch closely, and red indicates a candidate to trim.

The result?

16% outperformance, and more importantly, only one loser.

All decisions are nearly spot on. A founding member with 40 years of professional experience in the market, with whom I provide personalized research service, said my track record is like landing head 20 times. Lucky? Yes, but my process ensures I will continue getting ‘lucky’ for a long time.

I encourage you to check out my free content. I don’t give trials because my research process is highly proprietary (I know what to focus on) with a high success rate, and multiple free riders have copied them already (Yes, I can track all readers' clicks). I don’t intend to provide discounts, but you can lock in the current prices today.

See you on the sea of greens.

Best wishes,

Trung

Disclaimer

As a reader of Sleep Well Investments, you agree with our disclaimer. Read it here.

Build your Sleep Well Portfolio today

Good morning, sleep-well owners,

This portfolio update lets you skim the Sleep Well Portfolio's outperformance, yearly reviews, and current investment universe. I also outline companies I am considering and attractive opportunities to buy.

• Sleep Well Portfolio's money-weighted gain per pick was 44% (58% time-weighted).

• 9/10 made money, only one loser.

• 2025 Year-to-date return was 11% vs S&P500 2%: 9% outperformance.

• Return from inception was 32% vs. S&P500 15%: 17% outperformance.

• Sold Floor and Decor to fund the initial purchase of Wisetech.

• Five attractive sleep well picks to buy for this month.

If you have time, read Terry Smith's (15% CAGR), Scott Fraser's (19% CAGR), Ralph Wanger's (16% CAGR), or Peter Lynch's (29% CAGR) teaching.

Consider becoming an annual premium member to track the Sleep Well Portfolio, transactions, and Sleep Well scores. The link to the Sleep Well Portfolio Spreadsheet is here. For all other write-ups, click here.

Upgrade to premium

Quality > quantity

Trung

Sleep Well Portfolio reviews

How can Sleep Well Investments help you?

1. High success rate stock picks—44% money-weighted (58% time-weighted).

2. High-quality research and detailed follow-up. Buy and verify.

3. Free samples of deep dives, tracking updates, and buy alerts.

4. Free knowledge of investment framework to help find quality companies and execute with discipline.

Current portfolio (Feb 2025)

Read more

Build your Sleep Well Portfolio today

Good morning, sleep well, investors,

• Money-weighted gain per pick was 40%.

• 2025 Year-to-date return was 10% vs S&P 3%.

• Return from inception was 31% vs. S&P500 17%.

• No portfolio changes in January.

• Grab was the 17th and most recent Sleep Well pick - a Southeast Asian Super App.

If you have time, read Terry Smith's (15% CAGR), Scott Fraser's (19% CAGR), Ralph Wanger's (16% CAGR), or Peter Lynch's (29% CAGR) teaching.

Past updates and live ownership alerts are pinned on the Sleep Well Portfolio tab.

Consider becoming an annual premium member if you want to track it in real-time. The link to the Sleep Well Portfolio Spreadsheet is here. For all other write-ups, click here.

This portfolio update lets you skim the Sleep Well Portfolio's performance, yearly reviews, and current investment universe. I also outline a few companies I am considering.

Upgrade to premium

Quality > quantity,

Trung

Sleep Well Portfolio reviews

How can Sleep Well Investments help you?

1. High success rate stock picks—40% money-weighted

2. Deep research of high-quality businesses and detailed tracking. Buy and verify.

3. Free samples of deep dives, tracking updates, and buy alerts.

4. Free articles on investment framework to help find quality companies and execute with discipline.

5. Promote yourself to 6000+ stock market investors (47% open rate) — Contact me: trung.nguyen@sleepwellinvestments.com

Current portfolio (Jan 2025)

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I am honored that you find my work impactful. Sleep Well Investments is built on a foundation of a rigorous stock selection process and practices Jeff Bezos’s ‘Day 1’ mentality for continuous improvements.

2024 was near perfect, with a 92% win rate, after 100% in 2023.

• 🎯 11 buy & sell decisions were correct out of 12 compared to 4 out of 4 in 2023

• 🕵️ 7 sleep-well picks yielded 33% return on average

• ☑ 30 thesis tracking reports that deepen knowledge of our 17 picks

• 📚 learned from Peter Lynch, Scott Fraser, Ralph Wanger, and Terry Smith.

I am incredibly proud of this result. Despite the current bull market, all 3 of my sales decisions were correct. On top of this, 8 out of 9 buy decisions were on the money, keeping up with 4 out of 4 in 2023. Quality > quantity.

Then, for four months, my 5-year-old daughter was hospitalized (and is still recovering) due to a complicated bone fracture, which turned our family upside down. But that didn’t stop me from publishing 46 writeups and delivering excellent results this year - a testament to my sleep-well system for investing and managing our daily lives.

Yes, luck struck twice after last year’s success. So, I will continue refining and executing with discipline to ensure it rolls on. I am grateful for your kindness. Without your support, our lives would have been a lot more challenging. Thank you 🥰.

Let’s look at our 2024 performance and the key lessons to achieve good results in 2025 and beyond.

FY2024 Performance 😴 sleeping well

Caveat emptor: Our finish line is in 2037, not 2024. Judge my performance in a few years, not today. That said, let’s celebrate crossing our second year together!

Since inception (October 2023), my self-reported result is 32% money-weighted per pick.

From 2024, I will start reporting the Sleep Well Portfolio and my personal portfolio (PA) directly from my broker, Interactive Brokers.

However, I could only pull the results for the Sleep Well Portfolio from March 2024, when my daughter's account was migrated. Hence, the following results are for reference only and are not meant to be precise but are approximately correct with the transaction reported in my Sleep Well Portfolio spreadsheet (only for the annual sub).

The Sleep Well Portfolio (blue) returned 22.5%, compared to 16.6% for the S&P 500 (01 March 2024 - 24 December 2024).

My Personal Portfolio (PA) returned 86%, compared to 26% for the S&P500 (01 January 2024 - 24 December 2024).

My PA's superior performance is explained by owning much larger positions in CrowdStrike, Sea Limited, Mercado Libre, and Grab, four of which I have owned for over five years.

But 2024 is already past. What is most important is the health of the portfolios beyond 2025, and I will dedicate a separate write-up to laying out my top picks.

Transaction performance 🎯 11 out of 12

I made 12 transactions (9 buys and 3 sells) in 2024, 11 of which were correct.

I am incredibly proud of the three profitable sell decisions, particularly in a bull market.

Selling Willscot MM yielded a 9% gain (selling at $37 while the stock slid to $34 since selling) plus a 20% gain from using the proceeds to buy Grab in October.

Similarly, selling Medistims at NOK 170 while the stock slid to NOK 140 yielded a 17% gain plus a 66% gain in using the proceeds to buy Fortinet in July.

Selling Crowdstrike at $381 due to valuation (90x FCF) concerns to buy Sea Limited (25x FCF) and rebuying CrowdStrike after the IT outage sell-off (40x FCF) has also proved to be correct (so far).

Only the purchase of Mecardo Libre on October 10 remains a negative result. But I have zero concern as Meli is Latin America's most sleep-well business (anti-fragile with a long reinvestment runway at a high return on investment).

Sleep Well Picks performance.

We recommended 7 new picks in 2024. You can see the performance since publication in the table below.

Links to the 7 deep dives in 2024:

1. WiseTech - Global logistics software leader [Part 1, Part 2] +31% CAGR

2. Fortinet - Sleep Well In Network Security [Part 1, Part 2] +13% CAGR

3. Dino Polska - Polish success food retailer +38% CAGR

4. Kinsale - Leader in E&S insurance submarket +50% CAGR

5. Sea Limited - Tech Titan in Southeast Asia +30% CAGR

6. Mercado Libre - The Most Sleep Well Business in LATAM +33% CAGR

7. Grab - SuperApp Monopoly (-36%) CAGR

Key lessons

I take every win and loss as a lesson to improve. Let’s go through three, then discuss Jeff Bezos’ ‘day 1’ mentality.

Sell least-loved position first (Medistims and WillScot) - Scott Fraser.

Owning companies you don’t love drains valuable resources and enjoyment that can be invested in others. I learned this from reading Scott Fraser’s Picking Winners book [review here]. Moreover, companies must be sold if they perform poorly relative to others or have become more challenging to track. That was the case with Medistims, which had proven less attractive than my other picks (Fortinet) and also confused me when they changed how they reported segment data.

WillScot, on the other hand, was a less productive business than initially thought, given that it already owned 50% of a slower-growing market (5% growth) compared to Grab (12%+). The low visibility of the merger with the second-largest player, McGrath, also reduced my confidence in the current management's execution.

Any year you don’t destroy one of your best-loved ideas is probably a wasted year (CrowdStrike) - Charlie Munger.

I first wrote about CrowdStrike in 2020 and owned it shortly after its IPO in 2019. It was my biggest winner and, at a point, was over 30% of my portfolio. But this year, I sold it at $381/share and re-purchased it at $205/share (today: $365/share). Luck? Certainly. But, no matter how much in love I was with CrowdStrike’s execution and expanding competitive advantages, I couldn’t see how the business could grow at 25% for the next 14 years to justify the 90x FCF valuation. Make no mistake, CrowdStrike was the best endpoint solution, but cyber security has formidable peers, namely Microsoft, Palo Alto, and Fortinet. Having a good knowledge of all three, I know they have a leading position in their core segment, and their superior scale and distribution will allow them to encroach on CrowdStrike’s share. At 90x FCF and with that competition risks, there was minimal margin of safety. Moreover, historically, only 6% of businesses can grow organically over 10% for 10 years (McKinsey study between 2009 and 2019); CrowdStrike’s 25% required annual growth is a long stretch. However, at 40x FCF and little impact from the IT outage it caused in July, I was a happy buyer again, with a much smaller position.

Bet big when the odds are in your favor - Charlie Munger

I used to limit my allocation to 5% of the portfolio for any given stock. However, that would be a waste of my deep understanding of a few stocks I cover. Thus, I have become more concentrated when encountering a business that ticks more boxes on the sleep-well checklist and when I know it well. I have tested this strategy more aggressively in my personal portfolio and started doing the same for the Sleep Well Portfolio (MIPS, FTNT, MELI, SE, GRAB with a 10%+ allocation).

Time will tell if it will work; everyone must do what suits their circumstance best. At Sleep Well Investments, we dive deep into fewer stocks and track them rigorously, so staying concentrated fits well.

See our tracking sheet below.

**Links to thesis updates, buy-and-sell, and deep dives are all in the Sleep Well Portfolio spreadsheet.

The ‘Day 1’ mentality continues.

I created Sleep Well Investments to hold myself accountable for my family’s future and safeguard what we have saved for decades. Now that over 5,000 of you have trusted me, I feel more grateful and motivated to continue refining my investment process and building discipline to allocate capital wisely.

That’s my ‘Day 1’ mentality.

What’s Day 2, you ask? In Jeff Bezos’ words:

Day 2 means stasis, followed by irrelevance, followed by an excruciating, painful decline, followed by death.

It’s not quite dramatic, but you get the vibe. Like my father, who’s especially old-schooled, I want a solid safety net for my family. So, it will always be ‘Day 1’ for me. I will repeat this section until it grows in my bones.

So in 2025, you can again expect:

• Quality > quantity

• High win-rate

We will continue to compound capital by being highly selective of what we own and knowing deeply why we own them. I believe this is the most ‘sleep-well’ and proven way to succeed.

Stay tuned for my subsequent write-up, where I will discuss the sleep-wellness of my picks for the next 5-10 years.

Don’t hesitate to comment, help me improve, and contact me through trung.nguyen@sleepwellinvestments.com, LinkedIn, or twitter/X@DTF_Capital.

Happy holidays with your loved ones!

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