NVR's open secrets to a land-light and regional-focused strategy brought a 30%+ CAGR return since reformation in 1993. It will thrive in downturns and I am tracking 4 KPIs to own a piece.
Magnífico artículo. Muy bien explicado, con mucho detalle y empleando términos fácilmente entendibles. Es una empresa para la watchlist pero que, como bien dices, ahora no está en precio. Muchas gracias y enhorabuena por tu trabajo!
Hello Emilio, thank you for your kind words! I prefer to do as much research as I can on my investments, it is also so that my daughter, who will take over the portfolio, can have everything at her disposal and can make her own decision in the future.
Check out my other write ups, some are still good buys at the current prices, imho.
I like their land light and pre-fab ambition and £1B capital return plans....but I thought the success of the NVR business model isn't as easily translatable to the UK. The underlying market isn't the same. For example: The UK actually has a bigger labour shortage than the US and planning permission takes longer, so they can't really build homes quick enough, even if they want to.
Vistry pre-fab move won't likely reap the benefit as much as the US counterpart as the scale/cost advantage is a lot smaller here. Finally, I think so far, their land turning and cash conversion are not suggesting they are executing like NVR.
But don't listen to me, and correct me if I am wrong. Vistry is on my radar but i haven't deep dived further. If you find anything please share with me. Thank you!
You've likely heard of both of these companies, but Transdigm and Heico seem like they could be reasonable candidates to the Sleep Well portfolio. Just a thought
Thank you Patrick, they are both great! Do you know them well? Which is your preference? I am leaning towards HEI but I have not done enough work around the industry to commit yet. I have got three that I have been observing for a while and two are not well covered at all so we might have first dibs on price discovery. (I will keep the names private for SWI only, just like Medistim - which btw is getting closer and closer to the buy price)
I need to do quite a bit of work on both, but at present I think I lead towards Transdigm. I don't believe I've ever come across a company that has as much pricing power as Transdigm.
Heico on the the other hand has been lead incredibly well by one family since 1990. I believe they've managed to compound at something like 20% per year. My issue with them is that a large portion of their business is selling non original equipment manufacturer aircraft component replacement parts. They're quite successful at getting these parts approved by the FAA, however they then need to convince airlines to use their parts as well. Seeing as the replacement parts are a relatively small cost of overall aircraft maintenance, it may be an uphill battle to convince airlines to use their parts, as opposed to OEM parts from companies like Transdigm.
Sorry Patrick, I missed your reply on HEI and TDG. I think you have made a good case on TDG already. I'll ping you a message if I get to these two in the future! Thank you for suggesting.
Buenos días desde España!
Magnífico artículo. Muy bien explicado, con mucho detalle y empleando términos fácilmente entendibles. Es una empresa para la watchlist pero que, como bien dices, ahora no está en precio. Muchas gracias y enhorabuena por tu trabajo!
Hello Emilio, thank you for your kind words! I prefer to do as much research as I can on my investments, it is also so that my daughter, who will take over the portfolio, can have everything at her disposal and can make her own decision in the future.
Check out my other write ups, some are still good buys at the current prices, imho.
Hello Trung - have you perhaps had a look at Vistry Group? Very similar situation to NVR but in the UK.
Hi Patrick, happy new year 2x. I looked at Vistry a while back and listened to this podcast - https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/david-capital-partners-adam-patinkin-thesis-on-asset/id1526149547?i=1000640822565 - from last year
I like their land light and pre-fab ambition and £1B capital return plans....but I thought the success of the NVR business model isn't as easily translatable to the UK. The underlying market isn't the same. For example: The UK actually has a bigger labour shortage than the US and planning permission takes longer, so they can't really build homes quick enough, even if they want to.
Vistry pre-fab move won't likely reap the benefit as much as the US counterpart as the scale/cost advantage is a lot smaller here. Finally, I think so far, their land turning and cash conversion are not suggesting they are executing like NVR.
But don't listen to me, and correct me if I am wrong. Vistry is on my radar but i haven't deep dived further. If you find anything please share with me. Thank you!
Btw, do you like the recent Australian pick? :)
Amazing write up as always Trung
Thank you Patrick! That means a lot! I'm preparing a really nice line up for you in the coming months!
You've likely heard of both of these companies, but Transdigm and Heico seem like they could be reasonable candidates to the Sleep Well portfolio. Just a thought
Thank you Patrick, they are both great! Do you know them well? Which is your preference? I am leaning towards HEI but I have not done enough work around the industry to commit yet. I have got three that I have been observing for a while and two are not well covered at all so we might have first dibs on price discovery. (I will keep the names private for SWI only, just like Medistim - which btw is getting closer and closer to the buy price)
I need to do quite a bit of work on both, but at present I think I lead towards Transdigm. I don't believe I've ever come across a company that has as much pricing power as Transdigm.
Heico on the the other hand has been lead incredibly well by one family since 1990. I believe they've managed to compound at something like 20% per year. My issue with them is that a large portion of their business is selling non original equipment manufacturer aircraft component replacement parts. They're quite successful at getting these parts approved by the FAA, however they then need to convince airlines to use their parts as well. Seeing as the replacement parts are a relatively small cost of overall aircraft maintenance, it may be an uphill battle to convince airlines to use their parts, as opposed to OEM parts from companies like Transdigm.
Sorry Patrick, I missed your reply on HEI and TDG. I think you have made a good case on TDG already. I'll ping you a message if I get to these two in the future! Thank you for suggesting.